ESGS Logical Fallacies

Gambler's Fallacy


The gambler's fallacy is the mistaken notion that the odds for something with a fixed probability increase or decrease depending upon recent occurrences.


This is a fallacy because mathematically wrong. With two independents events, such as two dice throwings, lottery numbers, etc., the result of the first event does not change the probability of the next.


Last time, I made a 6 with that dice, so this time I'll try another number. The probability of ahving a six is as high as that of other numbers.

When events are not independent, the probabilities can change.


© ESGS, 2002.